The Elephant Tribe vs The Donkey Tribe

I remember a time when we had political parties. They didn’t rule our everyday lives, neither was anything they did (or didn’t do) so interesting that we lost any sleep over it. We read the news and political discussion happened at the BBQ at the neighbor’s house, at work in the breakroom, or even after church.

We humored each other when we listened to each other, sometimes we had heated arguments, especially when alcohol was involved but we respected each other in the end.

Tonight there will be a debate between two old men who haven’t really worked much in their lifetime. One studied economics and inherited his father’s company, the other one studied the law, worked as a public defender, and became a politician at an early age.

Both men who would like to be President again were born when World War II was still going on. As most of us know, WWII ended in 1945.

Two old white men will debate each other tonight. The 78-year-old one will tell the 81-year-old that he is too old, and vice versa. Who will yell and who will keep it cool? Will they offend each other as many hope, or will they stay focused on the subjects at an age where focusing and remembering is hard by nature.

One of the characteristic features of this election cycle is the seemingly immovable poll ratings for the two top candidates. For both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, approval ratings rarely exceed 40 percent. If we turn to the direct polls, the race has been statistically undecided for months.

None of this should surprise us. After all, the Americans already know both men quite well. Moreover, in a highly polarized environment, people often form their opinions about politicians not so much based on their policies, but based on their party affiliation. In today’s America, political affiliation is comparable to belonging to a tribe, and we support our tribal leader – whatever comes out of his mouth on any given day.

The American tribal spirit is not only evident in the reactions of individuals to the presidential elections it can also be seen in the settlement patterns of the population. It seems like Americans like to live around people who think like they do. Over the past few decades, we have divided ourselves into Republican “red” states and Democratic “blue” states.

The Elephant Tribe and The Donkey Tribe

We are divided by the tribes we belong to the point that we don’t respect our neighbors, friends, and family members anymore if they happen to belong to the other tribe.

Daily headlines, daily outrage, and daily news don’t interrupt our daily routine anymore, they are now a part of our lives that most seem to accept. Phones pinging, Instagram singing, and social media deliver everything from facts to conspiracy theories every hour, every minute, as often as we want to read about it. It seems we can’t get enough.

Our tribal leaders can’t do wrong, as the other tribe can’t do right?

The result of all this? Unless something unforeseen happens, this election – which I personally consider the most important election of my life – will be narrowly decided in the so-called swing states by a small group of voters who are still caught between two stools.

As a reminder to everybody who stumbles over my blog from overseas, Americans do not elect their president directly, but state by state in the Electoral College. So in the end the total of 538 electors will be divided among the individual states and Washington DC according to their population. With a few exceptions, the winner of the referendum in a given state receives all the electoral votes of that state. So whoever gets 270 electoral votes is the next president of the United States. There is no statistical draw on 5 November.

This is why Hillary Clinton who had more votes than Trump didn’t become the next and first female President. This is why Al Gore despite winning the popular vote by 543,895 votes lost the Presidency to George W. Bush (Yes I know the Supreme Court helped).

This explains why the candidates are now spending so much time in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. These relatively populated – and therefore rich in electoral votes – states are neither red nor blue, but “purple”. With roughly the same number of Republicans and Democrats, one or two percentage points in these states can be decisive for the outcome of the US election. It’s sad if you think about it, or perhaps I am the only one who feels that way?

So that’s why, strangely enough, we were able to see Donald Trump in a church in Detroit attended by black Americans last week. If he manages to shake off some of these traditionally Democratic voters, he could win Michigan’s 15 electoral votes. He just mentioned that black voters now can relate to him because of his legal troubles and his conviction. (I am white and freckled, I am biting my tongue hard on this one.)

The same logic drives President Biden to Republican, rural Pennsylvania to talk about the $65 billion his administration has invested in high-speed internet connections for America’s rural communities. A few thousand additional votes from farming families can help Biden win Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes again. All of a sudden both men remember areas where they normally don’t go to.

Biden and Trump in the TV debate! Important – but perhaps without effect

With millions of Americans watching the debate, it offers each of the candidates the opportunity to change the dynamics of the race. Undecided voters remember the Trump years and fear a return to chaos. But they also have serious concerns about whether Biden is up to the rigors of four more years in the White House. Of course, Trump is high up in age as well and no freshly colored hair or tan can hide it.

However, there are good reasons to doubt that either will succeed.

The debate will take place in a television studio, without an audience. Since Trump draws his energy and focus from the admiration of his tribe, he may be the one who seems listless and disoriented. And since the rules do not allow for notes or consultations with advisers during breaks, Biden, who is prone to faux pas, will surely give more than one confusing answer.

Therefore, the day after the debate on 27 June, we could be back where we are today. In a presidential election campaign in which none of the candidates really got into the race.

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